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29 9, 12:46am
"Their total population number wasn't even remotly the reason it became torn apart in a civil war."
You are mistaken.
The Syrian civil war started from escalating water scarcity which led to drought and crop failures, which led to millions of country folks migrating to the cities, which led to (food) riots, which led to the heavy hand of Assad, which eventually led to the civil war. The problems were exacerbated by the global AGW trend and the accompanying aridification (desertification) trend of the middle east. However, the groundwater was dwindling because of water pumping, not because of evaporation. The civil war coincided with the moderate El Ninos of 2007 and 2010 which both elevated food prices due to global food market shocks on extreme climate events. Those poor countryfolks did not have enough money to buy ever more expensive food.
So for all purposes it was overpopulation - the country could not feed its population.
"But again, current crisis means less people in the middle east so, the overall ecological footprint remain pretty much the same."
Once the regional ecological collapse is on its way, it will stabilise on a much lower level - meaning that the ecological footprint of the inhabitants would also have to stabilise on a much lower level. Possibly many times lower.
As to Europe, that depends on the subsidy system, if the subsidy system stimulates immigrants to have more children than local natives, then it would make the problems worse. The subsidy system must prefer natives.
/* "BAU scheme is bad"
Oh yea. But everyone else is doing it. */
A long slide down the Olduvai Gorge.