@rphb
[A deviation means that the models can underestimate or overestimate the real problem.]
In theory. But not in climate.
You would need to have negative feedbacks as strong as positive feedbacks.
Current positive feedbacks (the change) are at least 10x stronger (faster) than at any time during the known geological past of this planet (of at least 300 million years).
And I have repeatedly stressed that climate sensitivity is lowest in the middle, and highest away from the middle - if you were smarter then you would understand that this effectively means that planetary self-correction (the Gaia hypothesis) is very weak and slow and easily overwhelmed by sudden fast climate forcings (we have a record forcing here at present). There is hope to rebound from a snowball Easrth, but there is very little hope to rebound from a Venusian Earth. And the sun keeps slowly warming up during millions of years.
[but I am highly sceptical to people that have every reason to lie.]
[And then thou crank up the crazy one more notch by pointing to the “grand conspiracy” of the fossil fuel lobby. Coal and oil are very rich energy sources and their lobbies aren’t holding the alternative energy back.]
Merchants of Doubt. Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway
[If the state simply stood out of the way as I want, because as I said I am a minarchist, most of the alternative energy plans would disappear, as they simply aren’t profitable without state subsidies. ]
Fossil fuels industry is still being subsidised 10x more than the renewables industry.
The annual CO2 indirect costs itself are estimated to be around 2-20 trillion USD/EUR. Annually. Each year.
And then there are other costs - water, land, emitted uranium, other pollutants. And tax subsidies.
So it is actually the opposite.
[My point is that if only ye ignore dissenters ye can pretend that there is none. There are academic studies that are rather safe, I don’t think most care about theoretical physics one way or another, but climate is as I said highly politicized.]
You have nothing, because there is no such study (at least not by now) that would overturn the climate consensus. You have more chance appealing to additional dimensions of space-time and god-like aliens deliberately changing Earth's climate and its ramifications to our climate than to show any tangible down-to earth scientific study that would support your case.
[ I don’t know what thou had in mind, pollution is always a local phenomenon.]
LOL.
Pollution from Fukushima was detected in Lithuania 1-2 weeks after the accident.
Air pollution is global and the spread time is up to 2 years (which is also often cited as the impact time of a volcano eruption). Ocean pollution is also global, but it takes much longer.
[Everyone knows pollution is bad, but CO2 emission is not pollution.]
I guess eventually at some point I would have to admit that you seem to be a lost case. A general science denier. How did the PISA science test go? Not so great, I presume?
[The tragedy of the commons is solved simply by removing everything from the commons and into the realm of private property.]
You mean even more than it already is? Are you preaching feudalism? Or tribalism?
[I don’t think thou understand realpolitik and the principle of national sovereignty yet. Should we then not also put sanctions on America, for their war crimes and constant violation of other nations national borders?]
I am constantly getting strong vibes that you may not be danish at all. Are you a german? Or a russian-german?
[The idea behind sanctions is that thou think that thou comes from a position of power.]
No. The idea behind sanctions is that the other alternative to sanctions is arming up Ukraine or even sending NATO troops into Ukraine to help put down the local warlords. And Russia should be fine, since there are no Russian troops there in the Ukraine, thus no reason to get worried. Perhaps Ukraine would even miraculously buy Leopards and Raptors from local cornershops. I hear the prices are very low there.
[No one have any authority over another, and there are no rules, only the rule of the jungle.]
Another opinion that does not look like a danish or a nordic one.
[Should we have put sanctions on the Soviet union? What instead of the Sino-soviet split it had become the Sino-soviet union. What if the dollar had collapsed in the panic of 1980 and the USA had desolved. Then NATO desolved and Germany had been unified under the DDR, with France, Spain and Italy joining the Warsaw Pact.]
LOL.
Joining the Warsaw Pact? Voluntarily? Has that ever happened?
[We don’t want to galvanize our enemies, and there is an old saying that we should not poke the bear.]
So you are a russian? Or a russian-german?
There is another saying: finno-ugrians dance at the bear burials.
A bear is a bear is a bear. A bear is not human, nor is it humane. A bear is only a step-brother to humans.
If one behaves like a bear, one will be treated as a bear. Bears that steal or plunder human properties will be skinned. We are good at this, quite a lot of bears are skinned in Estonia every year. And we dance as well.
So don't believe for a second that a totem animal status would somehow protect the bear. Yes, we here in Estonia also keep the bear population in check. But in western Europe, the bears were hunted to extinction.
[How well doth thou truly think Estonia would faire if we really allowed this to escalate to war?]
Who are the 'we'? You?
We do not stray to Russia to kidnap government officials.
During the interwar period between 1920 and 1939, about 20 Estonian border guards were killed on border duties by the USSR side. About 1 annually.
And how did we stray from AGW to Kremlin? Any Climategate / SwiftHack connections?
Are you aware that the Russian Academy of Sciences fully supports the findings of IPCC reports?
And that Putin and Medvedev have both at least once openly admitted that AGW is a real phenomenon and should be stopped?
[So I say again, it would not be wise to poke the bear.]
Poking or not poking THE bear has little effect on what THE bear will do once an opportunity arises.
Game theoretically it makes sense to speak out loud while you still can.
0
@rphb
[A deviation means that the models can underestimate or overestimate the real problem.]
In theory. But not in climate.
You would need to have negative feedbacks as strong as positive feedbacks.
Current positive feedbacks (the change) are at least 10x stronger (faster) than at any time during the known geological past of this planet (of at least 300 million years).
And I have repeatedly stressed that climate sensitivity is lowest in the middle, and highest away from the middle - if you were smarter then you would understand that this effectively means that planetary self-correction (the Gaia hypothesis) is very weak and slow and easily overwhelmed by sudden fast climate forcings (we have a record forcing here at present). There is hope to rebound from a snowball Easrth, but there is very little hope to rebound from a Venusian Earth. And the sun keeps slowly warming up during millions of years.
[but I am highly sceptical to people that have every reason to lie.]
[And then thou crank up the crazy one more notch by pointing to the “grand conspiracy” of the fossil fuel lobby. Coal and oil are very rich energy sources and their lobbies aren’t holding the alternative energy back.]
Merchants of Doubt. Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway
[If the state simply stood out of the way as I want, because as I said I am a minarchist, most of the alternative energy plans would disappear, as they simply aren’t profitable without state subsidies. ]
Fossil fuels industry is still being subsidised 10x more than the renewables industry.
The annual CO2 indirect costs itself are estimated to be around 2-20 trillion USD/EUR. Annually. Each year.
And then there are other costs - water, land, emitted uranium, other pollutants. And tax subsidies.
So it is actually the opposite.
[My point is that if only ye ignore dissenters ye can pretend that there is none. There are academic studies that are rather safe, I don’t think most care about theoretical physics one way or another, but climate is as I said highly politicized.]
You have nothing, because there is no such study (at least not by now) that would overturn the climate consensus. You have more chance appealing to additional dimensions of space-time and god-like aliens deliberately changing Earth's climate and its ramifications to our climate than to show any tangible down-to earth scientific study that would support your case.
[ I don’t know what thou had in mind, pollution is always a local phenomenon.]
LOL.
Pollution from Fukushima was detected in Lithuania 1-2 weeks after the accident.
Air pollution is global and the spread time is up to 2 years (which is also often cited as the impact time of a volcano eruption). Ocean pollution is also global, but it takes much longer.
[Everyone knows pollution is bad, but CO2 emission is not pollution.]
I guess eventually at some point I would have to admit that you seem to be a lost case. A general science denier. How did the PISA science test go? Not so great, I presume?
[The tragedy of the commons is solved simply by removing everything from the commons and into the realm of private property.]
You mean even more than it already is? Are you preaching feudalism? Or tribalism?
[I don’t think thou understand realpolitik and the principle of national sovereignty yet. Should we then not also put sanctions on America, for their war crimes and constant violation of other nations national borders?]
I am constantly getting strong vibes that you may not be danish at all. Are you a german? Or a russian-german?
[The idea behind sanctions is that thou think that thou comes from a position of power.]
No. The idea behind sanctions is that the other alternative to sanctions is arming up Ukraine or even sending NATO troops into Ukraine to help put down the local warlords. And Russia should be fine, since there are no Russian troops there in the Ukraine, thus no reason to get worried. Perhaps Ukraine would even miraculously buy Leopards and Raptors from local cornershops. I hear the prices are very low there.
[No one have any authority over another, and there are no rules, only the rule of the jungle.]
Another opinion that does not look like a danish or a nordic one.
[Should we have put sanctions on the Soviet union? What instead of the Sino-soviet split it had become the Sino-soviet union. What if the dollar had collapsed in the panic of 1980 and the USA had desolved. Then NATO desolved and Germany had been unified under the DDR, with France, Spain and Italy joining the Warsaw Pact.]
LOL.
Joining the Warsaw Pact? Voluntarily? Has that ever happened?
[We don’t want to galvanize our enemies, and there is an old saying that we should not poke the bear.]
So you are a russian? Or a russian-german?
There is another saying: finno-ugrians dance at the bear burials.
A bear is a bear is a bear. A bear is not human, nor is it humane. A bear is only a step-brother to humans.
If one behaves like a bear, one will be treated as a bear. Bears that steal or plunder human properties will be skinned. We are good at this, quite a lot of bears are skinned in Estonia every year. And we dance as well.
So don't believe for a second that a totem animal status would somehow protect the bear. Yes, we here in Estonia also keep the bear population in check. But in western Europe, the bears were hunted to extinction.
[How well doth thou truly think Estonia would faire if we really allowed this to escalate to war?]
Who are the 'we'? You?
We do not stray to Russia to kidnap government officials.
During the interwar period between 1920 and 1939, about 20 Estonian border guards were killed on border duties by the USSR side. About 1 annually.
And how did we stray from AGW to Kremlin? Any Climategate / SwiftHack connections?
Are you aware that the Russian Academy of Sciences fully supports the findings of IPCC reports?
And that Putin and Medvedev have both at least once openly admitted that AGW is a real phenomenon and should be stopped?
[So I say again, it would not be wise to poke the bear.]
Poking or not poking THE bear has little effect on what THE bear will do once an opportunity arises.
Game theoretically it makes sense to speak out loud while you still can.