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14 2, 6:09pm
' I am not trying to shot thee up, I am trying to open thy mind to other possibilities. I know that thou think that thy worldview is based on very strong data but until thou art willing to admit that thou might be wrong, thou will not be able to see past the dogma.
Real science as I have said, is an inquiry, not a doctrine. It is never settled, never certain. The basis for a scientific mind is curiosity and humility. Only when one have admitted ignorance is it possible to learn.
When it comes to geopolitics thou need to have a timeframe that goes beyond the 20th century. It is not always the good guys that win.
The Crusaders tried and failed to take back the holy land, the end result was the fall of Constantinople, and within a century after that the saracens was at the gates of Vienna.
If thou know theeself and thy enemy, thou need fear a thousand battles,
if thou know theeself but not thy enemy for every victory gained thou will also suffer a defeat.
If thou know neither the enemy nor theeself, thou will succumb in every battle.
Sun Tzu, the art of war
Another lesson from Sun Tzu is that it is better to avoid war completely and if war is inevitable one should try to make it quick and decisive as any prolonged conflict is detrimental to ones nation.
And do not think when I say that the Baltic will fall under Russian influence that it means that they will simply invade, something that might provoke a response. It is that they along with China will be the dominant military, economic and cultural powers in the 21st century, because as the eagle is falling, the bear and the dragon is rising.
Like all nations Russia have suffered defeats in the past, like all nations does that don’t adapt to the time. Napoleon the third suffered a terrible defeat to the Prussians in 1870. The Germans thought they could do the same in 1914 and take Paris in a matter of weeks. They were mistaken and were clogged in the trenches for years on end.
The French thought that the trenches that had worked so well in WWI would work again in WWII, they were mistaken, this time the German offensive though Belgium really were quick and decisive. Defeat have always come to the people that closes their eyes to reality, because they see their ideas as perfect.
Russia won’t have as far a reach as they had doing the cold war. Their influence is sure to reach the Baltics. Poland will function as a buffer state between them and Germany that will regain full great power status, with France and England serving as a balance. Scandinavia might unite but southern Europe will fall into a prolonged depression. I say England because they are going to lose Scotland.
North America will be a hodgepodge of new nations, with no significant international influence. The greatest of the great power will be China. People that have hopes for India will be disappointed, this country is falling, not rising in prestige and influence. And the same will be the case for Mexico and other southern states, they simply don’t have the intelligence to ever become dominant.
This is my prediction for what will happen, and the alternative is a real world war, and then thou most certainly won’t have to fear global warming, as the dust cover from the hundreds of fired ICBM will ensure that the Earth will become quite cold.