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21 5, 11:09pm
I am not anti-capitalism, I am anti central planning.
No one can control the velocity of money, that is entirely dependent on the mood of the people. I also said that I am not convinced that that equation is even valid. Because where in it is the base?
The raw resources, the crops, the iron the oil?
I heard a funny joke a while back, it is about Bernanke and Krugman, both of them have been sent to that farm up north, that farm that all central bankers are sent to when they are no longer useful.
They are out walking when they see a big pile of bullshit. The reason why we know it is from a bull and not a cow is because on the FED farm all the cows are flown to China every day to be milked, so only the bulls stay home.
Anyway, Krugman says to Bernanke “Tell you what, I will give you 20’000 dollars if you will eat that pile of bullcrap” And Bernanke immediately accept.
After having finished that business the two very bearded men walk past another bull that have likewise left a little present, and now Bernanke is coming with the same offer to Krugman, which he also accepts.
After that business is finished with both men, having visible stains in their beards Krugman is whistling a happy tune but Bernanke have started to get a little sick, he complains to Krugman: “why are you so happy we both ate crap and none of us is any richer”, whereto Krugman says :”you are forgetting the bigger picture, we increased GDP by 40’000$ and created two jobs”
Anyway, the point is that money can’t be controlled, all that the experiment with fiat currencies have done, is shown itself to be one giant pyramid scheme, the people closest to the central banks have grown rich and the rest have been struggling.
Thou art thinking that prospectors finding huge gold loads in space is going to be some kind of problem, I see it only as an opportunity, we have had many gold rushes throughout the ages so it is not a new thing, and considering that gold is a hundred times below its fair value we would need to increase the supply a hundred fold just to make the current price fair.
ETF’s naked shorting and other insidious schemes have been used to artificially suppress gold.
Look at this article from today:
At 0.8% of the market gold would need to rise 125 times in price to be able to cover all bonds, stocks and real estate, and then we havn’t even talked about derivatives thou can forget about that.
Point being, a 20% increase is hardly a dent.
Deflation is bad for people in debt, and debt is bad so it is good for society when people that over consume are adequately punished for their overconsumption
3) intrinsic value
“So what you're saying is that "end-user value" of gold in desert scenario is vastly lower than that of the water, and in forest scenario reverse is true. It shows that intrinsic value exists only in your estimation”
What immediate concerns we have does not change the innate properties of the metal. I have a hard time grasping why thou would think that changing the circumstances should also be able to change gold so it follows me. Its value is intrinsic, that means that it does not depend on anything else, or vary based on anything else.
To take another example we can also take a sandwich. It also have intrinsic value. But a sandwich intrinsic value decays over time, as its bread hardens and its contents starts to rot. It also have the problem that it is not fungible. No two sandwiches are exactly alike, it is not just a matter of freshness but also of content and quality of content.
Gold is almost unique in that it is completely fungible, and don’t decay at all over time. Even silver oxidize, but gold is inert and will never corrode. Doubling or tripling the supply wont change that but it will allow us to use the yellow metal in ways that are today too expensive.
Think about how much longer a car would last if all of its metal parts were plated in gold?
“scarcity of bitcoin is set in it's code and it's not very likely that it will be changed under anything but most extreme circumstances”
I know that is what makes it arbitrary. Arbitrary scarcity is when the scarcity of something is purposefully limited by a human decision. Such as a limited edition, book coin or something like that. It is a manipulation technique and it is a scam.
Real economic activity is all about finding ways to overcome scarcity, to make it easier to bring about the underlying value of the good to the consumer.
There is also five kinds of scarcity.
1) Elemental scarcity, that is a scarcity that comes from it being a basic element. As such it cannot be manufactured in any way but have to be found in nature.
2) Molecular scarcity, such as diamonds, that is just neatly ordered carbon atoms. As such it is theoretically possible to turn any pieces of coal into diamond, we just have to figure out how.
3) Ecological scarcity. That is biological substances such as caviar or saffron. Pineapples were onces super scarce like these two, but a modern plantations and logistic networks have made the once extremely rare and expensive fruit that only kings could afford become so common that it is now mostly known as a pizza topping.
4) Creative scarcity, such as art.
5) Artificial scarcity, where the scarcity is purposefully limited in order to drive up price, this is often the case of things with little or no intrinsic value such as beaniebabies or bitcoin.
I don’t know when the bitcoin bubble will pop, but the fact that it have gotten bigger don’t change the fact that it is a bubble.
How many people got rich on the dot.com bubble? The vast majority rode it on the last leg up and then all the way to the bottom.