Odds and Ends
The boat is being floated
23 10, 3:46pm
The EU is by far the foremost expert on open borders in the world. To say that they have not given it a thought is actually quite insulting in a way considering all the work that has gone into building the EU single market. As such the EU has already presented a wide variety of options that the UK could choose from but if none of those options are satisfactory do you really expect the UK to figure out a better solution if a few scant years that the entire EU has failed to come up with during all these decades?
This is especially true when the Brexiteers who pushed for this whole nonsense has not contributed with a single proposal in the first place. It has all been empty words and no progress. Another important thing to note is that trade deals like these takes a long time. A very basic trade deal takes no less than 2 years of negotiation and normally longer. A trade deal on the scale of an open border with 27 other countries takes closer to 10 years if not more.
If the UK wanted to negotiate a custom deal then its not an exaggeration that they should have been at the negotiation table with a final proposal before triggering article 50. Doing otherwise is basically saying that you either dont know what you are doing or you want to leave with no-deal. The EU has provided options to choose from that they could accept in much shorter time but that is simply because they are already proven packages and because the EU is being nice.
Both the remainers and the EU also did tell you about how hard it would be to come up with an arrangement on the Irish border however they were being called Project fear and the Brexiteers said it would be the easiest deal in history and that the EU would give the UK everything it asked for because the UK was so invaluable. As for the EU sending representatives to the UK media to educate the people? That would have been seen as the EU tyrannically getting involved in British politics and vindicated the call to leave not to mention the EU is willing to let member states leave in the first place.
The drinking club analogy is actually pretty good, although more towards how the EU will handle the situation than in reality since the EU does have the legal option to force the UK to pay if they wanted to. But yes the EU will not ask the UK to pay if they leave. If they come back and want a trade deal or something however then the EU will demand that UK pays its previous tab first before getting anything new.
As for the whole suspension of Parliament. Just because it has gone on for a long time does not mean it has to have a longer break and leaving for party conference is something that the Parliament itself got to decide on, and both the Labour and the conservative conference was indeed impacted but again, that was Parliaments own choice.
As for the opposition not triggering a vote of no confidence? They simply do not have the votes, or rather they have enough votes to pull down Boris but they also need to replace him with someone else. Jeremy Corbyn is the obvious first candidate but there is enough opposition to him specifically that it would not go through and Jeremy Corbyn who is in charge of the largest opposition party do not want to support another candidate.
In other words if they triggered a vote of no confidence they would fail to form a new government and instead trigger a general election which by itself might not sound bad.. until you realize that it would suspend Parliament and Boris Johnson gets to pick the time and would simply put it after the Brexit deadline.
In other words a vote of no confidence without enough votes to replace Boris is a guaranteed no-deal brexit.
Same with the deal that Boris is proposing. The deal itself is actually pretty horrible, for as May's deal "trapped" the UK into the EU until they could come up with a sensible solution to the Irish border Boris deal just makes that permanent instead. But that is digressing. A vote for Boris deal would directly lead to a no-deal brexit.
If Boris can pass the deal through Parliament that means he can legally retract the request for extension and with so little time left over there is no way to implement the deal before the Brexit timeline runs out and the UK gets kicked out without a deal. This is why everyone who does not want a no-deal brexit demands the extension first before anything else. If the UK passes a deal later it does not matter how long the extension is, the UK leaves the moment it passes the deal rather than having to wait for the full duration.
Actually they did account for Boris to both not signing the letter which he was forced to by law and also sending other letters which is also against UK law because it goes against the will of Parliament. The EU also knows that the Parliament is sovereign in the UK and not the PM so they will ignore the PM if he goes against the will of Parliament.
The best evidence for him not being genuine about the deal is that the deal cant be passed without an extension. It is literally impossible to avoid a no-deal in the time that is left no matter how quickly you try to push that deal and it has been too late for like a month already.
Boris also hid the text of the deal and did not provide any review or impact assessments. Partially because that would allow Parliament to get their hands on them but also because it would slow down passing the deal as well.