Scandinavia and the World

Comments #9743207:


Like in the olden days 12 3, 9:24am

@Nisse_Hult I was trying to let you have the last word...why are we still talking?

But since you insist...sure, Trump's win was pretty slim (in the unimportant popular the Electoral College where it matters, he was solid). But it was earth-shattering all the same, particularly to folks who think like you. It wasn't supposed to fact, Hillary and her team of geniuses were so certain it couldn't happen that she spent the last days of the campaign visiting places like Arizona (typically a red state) in an attempt to run up her electoral college vote. Meanwhile, she had never even visited Wisconsin (typically blue) once. Guess which state flipped sides?

In the end, Trump flipped three blue states...Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. The last guy who made such inroads into Democratic strongholds was Ronald Reagan (look up 'Reagan Democrats' sometime), and he redefined politics here for a generation.

Now, it's too soon to say whether Trump has done the same. But, he got through to the voters in those states like no Republican before him, and he's been working hard to make good on his promises to them. Will it work? Again, too soon to tell. But if he peels off another 10% or 20% of the white vote from the Democrats, that pushes back the much-anticipated demographic death of the Republican party by another couple of generations.

And in that time, who knows what might change? The thing is, minorities and immigrants aren't stupid, and their voting patterns aren't encoded in their genes. They like good jobs, a strong economy, and a strong defense as much as anyone else. The Republicans have been working on their outreach game, and if they ever make the connection with these groups, who will the Democrats have left besides college professors, journalists, and Hollywood rapists? You can't win elections with just that rabble.

As for this November...maybe there's a blue wave coming, but I wouldn't bet on it. The president's party almost always loses seats in an off-year election, and this year probably won't be different. They'll do their best, but the longer the economy keeps growing and more people go back to work, the harder it will be to maintain the fiction that Trump is some kind of special monster that has to be thwarted. Our best and brightest will of course keep pushing that line, but fewer and fewer people are listening anymore.