2019 and 2020 books are in the
Odds and Ends
2 2, 4:29pm
I'm not sure of that. I'm speaking from ignorance on Spain's situation, but it seems that the difference between Catalan independence and Scottish independence is that Scotland is already an independent country, and has been since the 12th century (or before). The UK is a union of 4 separate nations. It wouldn't be a precedent for breaking up Spain -- I think it would be like admitting Eastern Germany as "part of Germany" or Greenland declaring independence from Denmark and leaving the EU. It's been taken out against its will and has already been a member. They can make a good case for re-entry.
I think Scotland is likely to leave the UK. It didn't vote for Brexit -- literally, none of its constituencies did. One big reason the 2014 Independence referendum failed was because they'd have exited the EU if they separated from the UK and would have had to fight to get back in. It's different now: they've been taken out of the EU by force. And even if it's hard, it's worth it! They'll have no chance at prosperity with England: all the wealth is concentrated in the South of England and as long as the Scots vote SNP (or even Labour) they'll be ignored at best and targeted at worst. Comparing that status to the prosperity of the Republic of Ireland suggests that the EU is a better bet than the UK.
They'd fit nicely in with the Nordics, since they pretty much are one. And we'd (Canada) happily trade with them; most of the original UK settlers here came from Scotland.
Northern Ireland will wind up reunited with the Republic and no-one will be happy, really, except for the English, who hate Northern Ireland. And poor Wales will be dragged around by England like a little kid with a puppy.