Scandinavia and the World
Scandinavia and the World

Comments #9873332:

Slava Ukraini 19 5, 8:36pm


We're talking about definitions of power. I was talking about the fact that Russia has markedly more of just about every metric other than manpower as Ukraine has pretty fully mobilized and Russia hasn't - which is I suspect due to Putin not daring to admit its needed. However the Russian forces have proved far less efficient, largely in human factors such as motivation and training and also because of abysmal leadership and decisions from above. Coupled with substantial military aid from the west that's why Ukraine withstood the initial storm and also [so far] the 'offensive' in the Donbas. However its suffered a lot of damage itself and while its winning in terms of not being defeated and managing to liberate some areas it could still be a long and very bloody cost to liberate all the areas occupied since this last round of fighting started, let alone the areas occupied in 2014. Coupled with the massive level of destruction inflicted by the Russians Ukraine will be economically weaker for probably at least a decade or more even if the war ended tomorrow and the west was willing to follow up military aid with the economic aid the country needs and which would be a hell of a lot more expensive. I hope they would get that although I have doubts. Russia is also going to be weaker but may not lose all its gains, let alone the issue of the ethnic cleansing that has occurred in many areas it has occupied.

Ukraine doesn't have more tanks than it started with. It has captured a lot of Russian tanks but many of them are not in working condition and would need a lot of work to get operational again, even if that was cost efficient. Plus that would also mean Ukraine would need spares and other equipment as well as trained men to operate and support them. They have not yet, to the best of my knowledge gotten any significant numbers of tanks from the west although some lighter combat vehicles have I believe already arrived. Furthermore of course its not tanks that are the decisive factor but the combined arms 'package' and how they are used, which is where the Ukrainians are coming out on top.

I agree that Putin's death, which could happen in an internal coup or due to his worsening health which by some reports is pretty serious, might be the easiest way to end the conflict quickly. However that would depend on who took charge and under what circumstances. A new dictator - and there's very little change of a democratic government emerging in the near run - could feel obliged, to avoid weakening his hold on power, to demand a ceasefire that keep substantial territorial gains. Or things could go totally to hell with either a civil war inside Russia or the possibility of nuclear use against Ukraine. As such Putin's death/removal from power, which might be necessary for peace wouldn't necessary solve all the problems and there's a possibility it could make things far worse for the Ukrainians or even the wider world.

As such I stand by my previous definitions. The Russian forces are more powerful in terms of sheer equipment numbers