The North Korean regime doesn't need nuclear weapons to defend itself like some claim - that's simply wrong.
North Korea haven't been under threat of invasion since the armistice in 1953 for two simple reasons:
1.) The regime enjoys the protection of China who wishes to preserve North Korea as a buffer state between it's border and South Korea - a US strong ally.
China don't want to see North Korea collapse, because they know it would end with the two Korea's being unified under South Korean control.
They don't care if the North Korea people slowly starve to death, they don't care what the North Korean regime does in it's own country - they only care it continues to exist as a buffer state.
When North Korea looked like it was going to be defeated completely in the Korean War - but only then - China entered into the war on the North's side, just to save it from being swallowed completely by South Korea and it's US ally.
They didn't do that to win the war for North Korea - they did it only to save them from being destroyed all together.
Thus the war ended in the armistice with basically no border changes at all.
Which was the solution that suited both China and the US.
2.) Since the war the South Korean capitol of Seoul has grown into a megalopolis. The city itself has almost 10 millions citizens and the larger metropolitan area hold over 25 million people. Unfortunately it's incredibly stupidly situated right next to the mountainous border with North Korea, where the North Korean now for over 50 years have built thousands of conventional artillery positions that can rain down conventional artillery shells on the city.
There is absolutely no way of stopping these small shells once they're fired and there are simply too many artillery pieces to knock them all out at once.
US military assessments calculate that they could - if war broke out - reduce the North Korean artillery positions within days, but we're still talking about many thousands of civilian casualties and massive destruction to Seoul before they can do so.
These are the two reasons that North Korea have never been under serious threat of an invasion since the armistice in 1953, and these two reasons exist today just as before - and there is no reason to think this will change in the foreseeable future either.
Thus the North Korean regime certainly don't need nuclear weapons to survive. They do nothing to reduce a threat from abroad as no such threat is there any way, because of the other two guarantees North Korea has, and the regime can't use nuclear weapons to defend itself against a popular uprising domestically.
So they're completely pointless as a defensive weapon.
But they are effective as a bargaining chip - and that's how previous North Korean leaders used them - to extract other concession from South Korea and the US in return for halting the program.
Unfortunately North Korea now has a young leader that for one reason or another really want to actually develop a nuclear capability, and not only that - but also be able to launch these weapons via ICBM's all over the world.
Thus this has gone from any measure of defense into a decidedly offensive stance.
There is no clear explanation as to why Kim Jong-Un so clearly want to upset the power balance like this. The regime he inherited seems to be perfectly secure to foreign observers - this high risk gamble is only putting it in danger.
Theories range from him simply being mad, to having succumb to his own propaganda and actually believing he could win a war, to him still wanting to do some sort of trade eventually - but it's hard to know for sure.
The problem is still that the weapons are real and thus the world - and especially the neighboring countries and the US, that the North Korean rhetoric have always pointed to as their major enemy - now have to deal with the fact that North Korea seems determined to develop a capability that could threaten them seriously.
So we have one leader acting irrationally and playing a high risk game which makes no real sense to the rest of the world and which ultimate goals are unclear - all of which increases tensions and heightens the risks of unintended consequences.
This problem is then made much, much worse by the fact that the US is currently lead by it's most incompetent leader in history.
Trump is - like his own secretary of state has said privately - a "f*king moron". He knows literally nothing about diplomacy or statecraft and he has absolutely no intention of ever learning either.
He inherited billions and have never done any real work in his entire life, instead surrounding himself with "yes-men" who's salaries he's paid and who's job it's been to stroke his ego and agree to all his ignorant ideas.
He's completely unsuited for the responsibility he has and the risks are thus exponentially heightened that he - acting out of ignorance - will stumble into a war with North Korea without having a clue about what he's doing.
So these are the real challenges here.
North Korea has always been safe from invasion - no matter what the regime in the North tells it's people just to strengthen it's own position. But now, with the offensive threats of nuclear ICBM's under Kim Jong-Un, this is changing.
North Korea is becoming an offensive problem the world has to deal with in SOME way - and the problem is that the US president isn't a rational person, making rational decision, but an ignorant buffoon bumbling his way through life.
So the problem here isn't that another US president could have avoided this situation all together - president of both US parties have tried to deal with the North Korean nuclear weapons program for decades and not found a complete solution.
But the problem is that Trump is such a complete idiot that there is little hope he will stumble into a coherent strategy on North Korea. Simply firing of tweets in all directions, sometimes encouraging China, other times attacking them, backstabbing his own secretary of states diplomatic missions and blurting out military secrets is obviously not going to solve this.
@Nisse_Hult Sadly there is nothing to solve. As you said China needs NK as buffer. NK is barely a state. So "solving" NK problem is the same as "solving China problem". And even more likely scenario than US/NK conflict is China/NK conflict if NK gets too cocky. Invasion from China, installment of new regime, oh and they will probably will take away nukes at the same time.
Well the situation will be solved in SOME way like I wrote.
The neighboring countries must adopt to the new threat of a more offensive North Korean stance in some way.
It might be - some analysts in the US are saying that - that the US will eventually accept North Korea as a new nuclear power.
Other believe the North Korean regime to be too volatile for that ever to be an acceptable solution and that North Korea's nuclear capability must be disarmed in some way.
The US lived with the threat of a nuclear armed Soviet Union during all of the Cold War - but some argue that regime was still more rational and predictable, making that a more acceptable risk.
While the North Korean regime has done extremely reckless things in the past and it's - in these analysts view - simply not possible to accept a nuclear armed North Korea in the same way.
As you say, one possible outcome would be that the Chinese support a coup in North Korea.
Not an actual invasion, but they have the best contacts in North Korea and they could possibly see to it that Kim Jong-Un was replaced by his brother or some other person on the understanding that North Korea disarm their nuclear weapons and remain content with the security guarantees offered by China.
China would certainly be happy with such a solution too - they have no real interest in seeing North Korea become a nuclear power and threaten the balance of power on their border.
There have also been some public concerns in China after the last North Korean nuclear test that set of several earthquakes along the North Korean/Chinese border.
The Chinese people have been grumbling a bit about that and the fear that radiation could leak out of the ground.
So there might possibly come a point where the Chinese leadership thinks Kim Jong-Un must go and try to depose him.
But that's also dangerous. If a coup back-fires China might end up with a nuclear armed North Korea that views it as an enemy - and that would be even worse for them of course.
Either way - Trump isn't doing any of this any better in any way of course. Literally any US presidential candidate in the last election would have been better. Because they at least understand enough to trust the professionals and follow their advice - while Trump raging egomania makes him believe he knows more about any matter then any professional.
Or "I know more about ISIS then the generals do, believe me" as he said in an interview.
That "believe me" is a tell by the way - he adds it whenever somewhere deep down in his addled psyche he knows he's actually bullshitting.
@Nisse_Hult I have heard rumors about USA having detailed plans to seize the Pakistani stockpile should that country ever go from "our relationship with USA is complicated" to "Death to infidels! Aloha Snackbar!", I suspect they have reached a secret understanding about the necessity of this plan with China, if so USA might simply make a similar plan for North Korea's stockpile (in case of a regime collapse and/or a coup going horribly wrong) & work to reach an understanding with China and Russia on the matter, China seems to have had enough of Kim's BS for the time being.
Hell, in another universe USA might even offer to *build* some nukes for Pyonyang just to make sure they don't accidentaly blow themselves up building their own bombs & irradiate everything within hundreds of miles of Korean peninsula.
I'm sure they do - it's the military's job to be prepared for all eventualities.
But I highly doubt they have reached any agreement with China about any such plan. The Chinese already understands they have such plans - just as they themselves do. It's however not something you discuss with anyone else then possibly close allies.
IF the US where ever to put such a plan in effect, they might give the Chinese a short-time heads up if the plan involved visible troop movements - just to not scare them into thinking some offensive move against them where in the making.
But not even that is certain.
China and North Korea are pretty tight and I don't think the US trusts China to not pass the information on to North Korea and nor should they.
@Nisse_Hult "But I highly doubt they have reached any agreement with China about any such plan."
I never claimed they had, I said they have reached *an understanding* meaning Americans have made it known to the Chinese that if the Kim regime collapses they will be securing the Northern stockpile & China can either help or stay the hell out of Americans' way.
As for China passing on information about American plans to secure North's stockpile, if Pyongyang needs China to tell them that USA has such plans then the Kim regime is even more retarded than I thought.
But sure - IF the US and China ever did agree about these things it would be in the form of an understanding and not a formal, written agreement, of course as China would be backstabbing it's ally North Korea.
But what you're describing isn't actually an understading, but a US ultimatum - and I don't think the US have delivered any of those.
And if North Korea would be retarded if they don't understand the US has such plans - wouldn't it be equally retarded by the US to inform the Chinese they have such a plan?
Obviously everybody already knows everyone else have these kind of plans - it's what's known as an open secret.
The only possible use ever informing an adversary (which China is to the US) about such a thing is to seek their approval before hand - to reach an agreement (or unofficial understanding then).
But China would probably never agree to such a thing as they don't want to see the US sending any troops into North Korea for any reason.
There are all kind of secret information in North Korea that China don't want to see fall into US hands and they wouldn't trust the Americans to only do what they claim they came for if they went there - and nor should they.
If such a scenario arose it's a much more likely scenario that the Chinese would be the ones doing any disarming or securing of North Koreas nuclear weapons.
The US military themselves would probably prefer that as well - unless they totally controlled all of North Korea it would be an incredibly risky operation to send US troops into the North to try and secure specific assets.
Also the North Koreans themselves - whether there still was a functioning regime of some kind or just the North Korean people in general - would be much more accepting of such an intervention if it was carried out by the Chinese.
Not that they'd probably ever like any intervention - but if it was to happen it's still a lot better if the ones doing the intervening isn't the people you've been told for 50 years eats babies.
@Nisse_Hult "And if North Korea would be retarded if they don't understand the US has such plans - wouldn't it be equally retarded by the US to inform the Chinese they have such a plan?"
if you'd be so kind as to show me *where* I have said that Americans would *inform* the Chinese?
You keep making a lot of (wrong-) assumptions about what I am saying.
"If such a scenario arose it's a much more likely scenario that the Chinese would be the ones doing any disarming or securing of North Koreas nuclear weapons."
as I said: "China can either help or stay the hell out of Americans' way", Americans would probably be ok with China securing the weapons, and in case China won't or can't do it, Americans would want to make it clear to the Chinese that *someone* has to secure the weapons & as such China should teh very least stay out of the way while someone else does the job.
To be able to reach any understanding about anything - which you say you believe the US and China has done - the US first obviously have to inform the Chinese about their intentions.
Or do you believe the Chinese can read minds?
Or that the US military attaché to Beijing acted it out in a charade and let the Chinese guess what he meant?
I'm not making any assumptions here at all - I'm only responding to what you yourself write.
But you seem intent on splitting hairs in an attempt to argue just for the sake of arguing and I don't have time for that so goodbye.
@Nisse_Hult here's an example of how you can let others know about something without technically informing them: everyone knows about China's domestic fighters even though Chinese military doesn't showcase them to the World the same way the Western countries do; instead Chinese knowingly allow the information to leak, even if they make sure to guide the leaks, they let the others know about the planes without technically informing anyone about them.
'@MiskisM' for more than a decade China doesn't need NK for anything more than supply of nearly slave labor and cheap minerals. Military necessity of such buffer state is not obvious, given how PLAN is built to dominate the region. They would not want a nuclear arsenal in a country on a brink of civil war, but invasion and regime change are going to be as costly for China as they would be for anyone else. Especially if it has any chance of going along the lines of Sino-Vietnamese war, but with nukes.
Oh, and yeah, why would North Korea want to have nukes when it's large-caliber artillery can deliver about 1 kiloton of explosives to half of Seoul (over a course of several days at least) until barrels wear out and have to be replaced? Single man-portable nuclear demolition charge has the same instantaneous yield and can be employed anywhere, in both offensive and defensive roles. Where's fun in that?
@Nisse_Hult I watched a documentary about North Korea that claimed that everyone except the North Korean people want the status quo to remain. China wants the buffer state, South Korea doesn't want to deal with the mess that would fall on its lap if North Korea fell, US likes the excuse to maintain military presence there and Japan has similar reasons, I guess. Must be upsetting to all above that Rocket Man and Trump are rocking the boat and messing with the situation that has worked so well for them so far.
I certainly think most South Koreans would like to reunite with their brothers and sister in the North.
Remember how Germany joined back up again after the wall came down.
Or imagine if half of Finland, with it's population, had been kept enslaved for decades - wouldn't you want to see them become free like you?
There would obviously be huge costs associated with doing so, but I don't doubt most South Koreans would still want it to happen.
And the US doesn't really need a reason to keep bases on the Korean peninsula other then China. A united Korea would probably still see the US bases as a security guarantee they would like to keep around.
And the same goes for Japan.
So I don't think any of those nations really want to see the North Koreans for ever enslaved by their regime - but of course they are also worried about anything that upsets the status quo.
Because they know what the status quo is and they've learned to live with it - but any change could also become worse then what we have now.
But if the North Korean regime crumbled peacefully from within, like the Soviet Union did, I'm sure everyone except China and the North Korean regime would be very happy with that.
I am annoyed to see so many of my fellow Americans misinterpreting this strip. It is not glorifying North Korea. It is not saying that we should do nothing about them. However, all Trump is doing right now is making vague threats ("Fire and fury") and insulting their leader ("Crazy little Rocket Man"). In doing this, Trump is just angering North Korea, making them even more likely to lash out against the U.S. or it's allies (notably Japan).
This strip isn't arguing that the world shouldn't take action. It is saying we shouldn't rush in blindly. It is saying that, if we take action, it should be carefully planned, planned in a discreet manner, and be a decision made by the whole world, not by one man with a football.* North Korea can not reach the U.S. yet, but Kim Jong-Un is trigger happy, and can easily nuke the many countries between North Korea and the U.S.
In conclusion and summary, messing with North Korea is dangerous, and we should avoid making Kim Jong-Un angry. The world needs to come together, and plan carefully and discreetly about how to best deal with this major threat.
*The "football" is a specific briefcase that has contents which can be used by the President of the United States to authorize the usage of nuclear weapons.
'@MapleLeavesAreHats' Trump can't be angering North Korea, because most of North Korea doesn't have access to internet. Government propaganda managed to stir anti-western sentiments without any actual quotes or facts anyway. And if you think that Kim Jong-Un is willing to effectively commit suicide over being trolled on Twitter, you'd have to explain how he survived to this day. Trump either puts on the show for his fans, or tries to make Nork leadership feel uncertain in it's expectations.
Kim Jong-un was made angry back in the beginning of 2016, and it was a joint effort by all relevant countries. Being called "fat" in internet is nowhere close to receiving an ultimatum that amounts to "disarm and submit, or else".
@MapleLeavesAreHats, Kim probobly just wanna preserv his lifestyle and not end up as Mussolini, its only empty threats, like another autoritarian, he uses U.S as reasons to preserv his own power, both justify able and not, every dictatorship has its end in sight.
As a representative of the American People, I would like to apologize for our current government fiasco. Apparently some of us didn't understand the consequences of voting for the worst possible option. When the eventual nuclear war/global economic collapse occurs, I will accept full blame on behalf of my fellow Americans.
...but not myself. I didn't vote for this bozo. (Can I come live with one of you in your sane country? Please?)
@Tarmaque
Do not know about worst option, can agree it was not best one.
And since we're getting moment of sincerity - will say I am truly sorry situation in Ukraine turned the way it did. We could've did things differently, better, and preserved peace here. Prevented deaths. Sorry that we failed, world.
Could pretty much make there a sub-section for apologies and confessions.
@Ninian As someone of Ukrainian heritage who lives near the American border, I appreciate both apologies above, and I'm sorry the best of both your countries are often overshadowed by the worst.
@Tarmaque
Eh, as your fellow Amercian I can't say Trump is the worst possible option. Clinton would be doing so much worse. Trump just doesn't know what he's doing and yes, that will probably make a mess.
That said if he does blow up the world I will be on board the apologizing train.
@Loosecat56 so your saying you prefer a maniac egotistical immature man who denies science and even logic over some uncharismatic, more-of-the-same woman? you know is called the lesser evil because the other option is a bigger evil, right?
@Tarmaque I'll take that apology as an admission of guilt.
Sure come on over you poor sod. It's not nessarsarily "sane" over here, but we suck up americas arse so we be pretty safe over here.
Not worth dropping bombs on us. (We will throw boomerangs at America if they start shit, as for the koreas... they will be too busy fighting off America and every other country that has bombs and wants Korea "out")
@Twinklebell Good! I have lots of friends in Australia. Most of them drunkards and layabouts. I'd trust them with my life, but probably not with my beer.
@Twinklebell : If you see Greg or John or Tony or Tristan or Mick or Strolly or Marion, give 'em a big sloppy wet kiss for me. (There's three or four others but I don't know their real names.)
@Finn123 That's an evil way of making decisions. The media: we hate child molesters and murderers. You: that means I should support child molesters and murderers.
@Finn123 No. Why do you ask? "The media" hates people who kill disabled children, so you are looking for mentally ill kids to murder? Your "do what the media hates" philosophy is really monstrous.
@EdPalmer
Are you specifically trying to act like a some sort of an idiot or did someone ram a crowbar through your skull when you were 12?
Everybody hates people who kill disabled children, you idiot. Not like it would be needed to explain this to anyone smarter than a two year old bonobo, but I was referring to things that the media actively fights against on with bs seethrough smear campaigns. Such like anti-feminism, nationalism or eurosceptism. Not things that are obviously immoral and wrong that the media doesn't wage war on, because that's pointless.
I know you're probably trolling, because even though you are an idiot regardless, I doubt it is possible for a human being to be so immensely retarded as you are portraying yourself to be. But yeah, point made anyway.
To be fair to Trump here. His behaviour in regards to North Korea is not unusual for a US president.
Obama, Bush, Clinton, etc. They all did this shit.
The only difference is this time the media is saying something other than "Our brave president stood up to evil north korea"
@FreeYourHate Hmm.. I agree with you for most. Though those other presidents also received shit from media. But Social media is inflating Trump thing to new heights. Also part of media became just "opinion pieces" and not news...
@FreeYourHate Trump is different. He's been president for almost a year, and he still hasn't even nominated an ambassador to South Korea. Why the heck wouldn't you nominate an ambassador. All previous presidents had serious diplomatic efforts. If there is war, millions will die. But Trump can't even be bothered with the effort of picking an ambassador to a key ally that's right next to North Korea.
@EdPalmer Well he has and has not. Problem Trump has is the Senate is dragging its feet over confirmations for every post he needs to fill. He's a year in and he's still not been able to get even basic positions filled because of the Senate.
He has someone for the job. But he's got more important domestic positions to fill first and as such can't afford to give the Senate ways to further delay.
@niauropsaka He is not stupid. He has made more money then you or I ever will, he became POTUS and I do not think I ever will. He just is not the kind of 'smart' that you like or respect. I can agree with that.
@WhiskeyWonka Meh, he was kinda born on third base and has been trying to convince everyone he hit a triple. Put another way, it's substantially easier to win a poker game if you start with 10x the chips than the majority of people you're playing against. I agree his issues are more of a moral failing than an intellectual one, but I don't think he's especially bright in the way many of his billionaire compatriots are (Gates, Buffett, etc).
@WhiskeyWonka He's actually a trust fund baby who has lost more of his money than he's made. Between lawsuits, failed business ventures, and massive spending, Trump's businesses have faced bankruptcy four times and he's been faced with financial ruin, only managing to escape by convincing people his name was worth money.
He inherited billions and has made enough disastrous business moves to almost loose it all.
Only reason he didn't is two things:
1.) The US tax code is written to preserve wealth in the hands of morons like him. It's actually hard to loose a fortune as large as he inherited if you just hire competent lawyers that make sure you use all the loopholes in the tax code.
And his money has bought him those lawyers of course.
2.) The same with business - starting out with billions it's easy to hire competent people who run your businesses for you, and Trump did that.
A lot of the wealth he inherited from his father and grandfather was also locked in real estate in and around New York.
Those buildings have only increased in wealth over time, while they produce a steady income from rent.
Again - it's almost impossible to loose money on that.
Instead, what Trump did when his father died, was starting to burn money on idiotic investments because his raging ego made him think he's the greatest businessman ever.
He bought an airline - that folded. He tried to buy an NFL-team but couldn't get one, so he bought a team in the competing USFL instead - that folded. He bought casinos - they folded (yes - he LOST money owning casinos - that's how bad a businessman he is).
After that a tax return released in one of the thousands of lawsuits he's been involved in showed he reported a PERSONAL loss of almost a billion USD in just one year.
He was wasting his inheritance - and fast.
Then he actually wised up and stopped doing these huge, disastrous deals, and started marketing small stuff instead. That's when the world got "Trump Steaks", "Trump Water", "Trump The boardgame" and all that other crap.
Didn't make much money, but he got to put his name on stuff and crucially it didn't loose a ton of money either.
And in the meantime the competent people his money bought him handled his real estate professionally, providing a steady income that let him continue living a life of luxury.
Eventually he got famous enough to become a reality TV-star which stroked his ego perfectly - and sold the image of him as this great businessman to a lot of Americans who didn't know any better.
So yes, like Rex Tillerson said - he's a "f*king moron". He just happened to be born rich and that wealth have made it possible for him to coast through life from one disaster to the next.
And now the world get's to see him fuck up the US presidency.
@WhiskeyWonka Seriously, he uses his "intelligence" and his billion dollars to taunt North Korea. He completely doesn't care (doesn't know ?) about consequences so yeah, he's very stupid. Making money is not a mark of intelligence, it's just a mark of success.
Yeah like North Korea will actually launch anything, they're all talk and no action. And as if Trump is somehow the aggressor here, North Korea has pushed out propaganda of their glorious leader destroying the stupid americans for ever far before Trump.
And Kim knows full well his whole country will be leveled in an instance if he dares to nuke anything.
@Finn123 Them just possessing nukes is already a problem. And I'm not saying let's nuke them now but dear fuck if America could get its shit together...
@Francis-Olivier
Ehhh, I suspect that nothing noteworthy will happen until there'll eventually be a military rebellion against the Kims in NK, and then the military junta will be actually possible to negotiate with, unlike the current leadership.
@Finn123 Or they'll turn out even more unstable than Kim. We might have a shot at dealing with NK if we were strong and stable enough to metaphorically starve them out but that's clearly not happening right now.
I really hate the fact that all I can say to the rest of the world is that I didn't vote for him. But I do promise to do everything I can to make sure that he doesn't stick around any longer than one term.
'@LogicMeister' Good advice, but it's already too late. Between the non-stop Trump Derangement Syndrome, and all the high-profile lefties raping and molesting each other, Trump is a shoo-in for 2020.
@Dorsai I think you need to check you facts about those "lefties" when it comes to raping and molesting anyone. When that happens on the left, those responsible more often than not, lose their jobs and reputations. The rights elects them to office.
Guys. Matters not if it is Trump or not Trump, democrat or republican, or even representative of any other political party with 326,326,020 citizens - it matters if elected head of state is competent, or not. This is the only thing you should be caring about, not about getting your favorite party on top by any means.
@LogicMeister I don't just say that Trump sucks. I let those who voted for him know just how badly his policies are screwing them and leave them to make their own choices on what to do next.
@Breyson Depending on where you live, it might be possible to implement a proportional representation on a local to state level. Not on a federal, at least not for the time being - but it still might change some things.
@Breyson, its quite important to listen to the concernce of his ridicu base, or els the cicle will start over, and its impossible to know if that person will be incompetance on a cann.
@Breyson, i know seen alot of ridicolus interviews with his base, but they are confuzed, they just doesnt know what they want they would need a magic stick.
@FrognerBaby I agree. His base just seems to want to be angry and will take any reason to be so. They had an election in Alabama today. It's a real Trump state but they picked a Democrat because the Trump-backed candidate is an accused pedophile. You'd think it would be an easy choice but the Democrat only won by around 1% of the vote.
22